Poll shows little optimism for Trudeau or Poilievre, points to ‘choose your poison’ election

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The majority of Canadians have intensely negative responses to both Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, according to a new Nanos Research poll that finds the credibility of both politicians low.

Even as Mr. Poilievre far outpaces Mr. Trudeau in public opinion surveys, almost six in 10 respondents in the Nanos poll say the Conservative Leader elicits negative emotions or responses such as dishonesty, deceit, fear and anger when they hear him speak.

The results are even worse for Mr. Trudeau in the poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail between April 28 and May 1. More than seven in 10 Canadians say that hearing the Prime Minister speak prompts feelings or responses such as stupid, anger, rage, disgust and ineptitude.

Respondents gave Mr. Trudeau an average credibility rating of 3.7 out of 10, while Mr. Poilievre scored 3.9.

“People don’t think any of the choices are credible,” said Nik Nanos, the founder of Nanos Research, in an interview. “The mood today is more about change, than about Pierre Poilievre’s vision for the country or Pierre Poilievre himself.”

The negative responses and lacklustre standing given to either leader underscores widespread discontent, even as time for change sentiment is high ahead of a federal election next year. According to 50 years of data tracked and compiled by the Angus Reid Institute, Canada’s three main political leaders have never been so unpopular.

Among those who gave positive responses in the Nanos poll, about three in 10 people said hearing the Conservative Leader speak prompted emotions such as hope, promise, and confidence. For the Prime Minister, almost two in 10 people said he elicited feelings such as honesty, trust, and passion.

For each leader, about one in 10 people described neutral or unsure emotional responses when they heard them speak.

Despite the lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Poilievre, the picture for Mr. Trudeau is worse, with his Liberals stuck trailing the Conservatives by double digits since August. According to the latest Nanos Research weekly tracking survey, the official opposition Tories lead with 43 points to 23 for the Liberals. The NDP are at just 16 points.

“People are not enthusiastic about any of the choices,” Mr. Nanos said. “Pierre Poilievre just happens to be the agent for change.” He cautioned that, given voters’ downcast opinions, the Conservatives “shouldn’t be too comfortable” in their position.

The results in the poll that looked at leader credibility and the public’s response to politicians closely mirror the demographics and regions that most favour either leader on the ballot.

For Mr. Trudeau, women rated him as higher on the credibility scale, at 4.2 out of 10, than men, who pegged his credibility at 3.3. His highest credibility rating by region was in Quebec at 4.4, his lowest was in the Prairies at 3.

It was the reverse for Mr. Poilievre, who got an average 4.4 credibility score from men, compared with 3.5 from women. The Conservative Leader got the highest average credibility rating in the Prairies, with five. In Quebec he ranked just a 2.8.

Mr. Nanos said the results show both leaders are polarizing, but “the reality is one of them is going to be Prime Minister. We’re asking Canadians choose your poison.”

To improve his credibility with Canadians, Mr. Nanos said the Conservative Leader would have to put forward a vision for the country that goes beyond a change message and attacking the Liberals.

For the Prime Minister to change his trajectory, Mr. Nanos said, it might take a major error from Mr. Poilievre to create “a recoil effect against change.” Alternatively, he said the Liberals could outline more affordability-focused policy or change leaders.

Mr. Trudeau has been adamant that he will lead the Liberals into the next election and repeated that sentiment in a series of post-budget interviews. This week, though, when he was asked about his party’s prospects if he stays on, he dismissed the question as an Ottawa “process” story and said he is focused on delivering results for Canadians.

“Building a better future for Canadians, bringing in fairness for every generation, that’s what I am 100-per-cent focused on right now,” Mr. Trudeau said.

People are still listening to the Prime Minister’s message. Of the Nanos poll’s respondents, 42 per cent said they regularly pay attention to what he is saying, and 45 per cent said they occasionally do. Just 13 per cent said they never do.

Depending on the question, the poll had between 971 and 1,086 respondents. With that sample size, the margin of error for the survey is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.