Can a female VP pick salvage Trump’s chances with American women?

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In the 2020 election, Donald Trump received only 44 per cent of the women’s vote.

That was before the issue of abortion rights, a millstone for Republicans, took centre stage. It was before Mr. Trump’s hush-money trial in which prosecutors have alleged he engaged in a porn-star payoff scheme to “corrupt” the 2016 election. That lengthy trial, featuring Mr. Trump as a scowling criminal defendant, has highlighted his disgraceful treatment of women.

For his entire career, Mr. Trump has fed off a larger-than-life image. But each day in the courtroom makes him look smaller. It’s like he’s turning on a spit. Never has the narcissist been so humiliated.

Even before the trial, Mr. Trump’s support among women had fallen, according to a Quinnipiac poll in January, to 36 per cent. That number can now be expected to plunge some more.

The great shortfall is largely made up for by the backing that Mr. Trump enjoys from America’s not-terribly-forward-thinking white male population. But in a women vs. men battle in the 2024 election, it’s looking good for the former. Women comprise the largest group of the electorate, and they turn out in greater number than men. They will be even more motivated to vote this time.

The gender gap is becoming highly pronounced in the youth demographic. Nearly two-thirds of American women aged 18-to-34 identified as progressive or liberal in a survey conducted by Change Research last year, compared with only about one-third of young men.

To try and stem the losing tide on the women’s side, Mr. Trump could very well opt for a woman to join him on the Republican ticket as his vice-presidential nominee.

Enter Kristi Noem, the Governor of South Dakota: a former congresswoman, rancher, beauty pageant winner and Trump favourite. She is a leading contender for Mr. Trump’s veep spot and she is doing everything possible to increase her chances of getting it, save carving out a place for him on Mount Rushmore in her state.

Ms. Noem, 52, has even undergone an image makeover, featuring a new set of teeth, long curls and radiant dress wear. Progressive media outlets have mocked her for the glamorous turn, saying that she knows Mr. Trump places a high priority on looks and is shamelessly pandering. Last month, she attended a rally in Ohio with the former president, and he was highly complimentary, singling out – predictably – her “beautiful” looks.

Democrats see her as a vapid hardliner – someone a mile wide and an inch deep, like former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who John McCain foolishly named as his vice-president pick in 2008.

Like Ms. Palin, Ms. Noem comes from a remote, thinly populated, very conservative state. South Dakota doesn’t get much love. But it would be a mistake to take Ms. Noem too lightly either as a vice-presidential candidate this time round or a presidential one beyond 2024. She has a wealth of experience, having served four years as a state legislator, eight years in the House of Representatives in Washington, and five years as governor. She completed her bachelor of arts degree while in Congress. On air, she is impressive, as she showed Sunday in a CNN interview with Dana Bash in which, with perfect composure, she deftly dodged tough questions.

Ms. Noem didn’t always sound like a big MAGA-type conservative. But authenticity not being her strong suit, she’s undergone a policy transformation as well as an appearance alteration.

She gained national attention for refusing to impose a statewide mandate on mask-wearing during COVID-19. She’s been a supporter of Mr. Trump’s election fraud claims and has taken a tough stand against transgender rights.

She’s also been an anti-abortion absolutist. But sensing how such a hard line was damaging Republican prospects and how Mr. Trump was trying to temper his position, she came out sounding more flexible on abortion restrictions in her interview with Ms. Bash.

Ms. Noem met with Mr. Trump a couple of months ago to talk about the vice-presidency after finishing tied for first with Vivek Ramaswamy in a poll taken at a meeting of the Conservative Political Action Conference.

But neither her looks nor his are likely to save Republicans from the drubbing they will be getting from women voters in November.

If America avoids falling into the abyss under another Trump presidency, it will be women, proving themselves to be the more politically enlightened segment of the population, to whom we will owe our thanks.